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The trade war between the U. China, EU and other countries has been heating up for a few months now. A trade war will likely help China. China will fight back vigorously if it keeps escalating. China has a nuclear option they haven’t used yet. In spite of these revelations and a host of others, the Trump Administration still insists on pursuing these protectionist measures. But that insistence may now be harboring new consequences.
18- Will The Impending US Economic Collapse Usher In Socialism? Yet, society, as a whole, has a very short memory. Thus, lessons learned through the pain of generations gone by often are quickly forgotten. We have very few people left worldwide who actually lived through the Great Depression. While I have been told many stories by my grandparents of what it was like to live through the 1930’s and 1940’s, I clearly do not have first-hand experience. Yet, I would assume that I still have a better understanding of that time period than most of the people reading my words today.
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With this risk, people have to take insurance. This business is not a business, it is a passion, and I have a passion to help the few people that see the risks. I think your best wealth preservation will be gold. At some point, all hell will break loose.
There is no question about it. It could be something very serious coming this autumn. The whole political system is fighting against Trump, and that is going to be tough, very tough. The markets are giving me the signal that things are going to turn in the autumn, and you can easily find a number of catalysts for this to happen.
18- The Economy is Cracking Up. Economic cracks big enough to drive a car industry into are opening up all over the globe. Trade gaps are opening up between major allies. Widening spreads between the dollar and other currencies are shredding emerging markets.
As we start into summer, these cracks and several others described below have become big enough to get everyone’s attention, just as I said last year would become the situation. I had, as readers here know, predicted the same for last summer but revised my timing to this summer after Trump was elected and the hope for tax cuts lit on fire one of the world’s greatest stock rallies. Those tax cuts are also creating another rapidly rising gap between government revenue and government spending. We currently have, or are nearing, all three of these criteria. But this time, the underlying circumstances are different. 18- Weekend Rant: Will Politics Decide The Future of The Financial Markets?
Does it ever feel like the financial markets have become heavily intertwined with the current political arena? Where in many cases natural supply and demand have become irrelevant, and instead asset prices often revolve around the latest gossip about potential Fed or government actions. Unfortunately today’s markets have evolved to the point where the latest political decree can significantly impact what happens. And along those lines, there’s been ample speculation that the powers that be may be planning a financial reset. The economies of the world are at an inflection point. Enough data points have now presented themselves to be able to see the outlines of a major shift in the markets of the world. We are at a pay attention moment.
There comes a time when a successful investor must make some hard decisions to position himself to be able to take advantage of opportunities down the road. The markets are telling us now is such a moment. It’s time to sit up and pay attention to what Mr. Market is trying to tell us. A funny thing happened in the middle of one of Mike Maloney’s deep-research sessions recently. As you know, he just released a brand new presentation, but while analyzing the stock market he wasn’t satisfied with the way most valuation measures were calculated.
With all due respect to Warren Buffet, even his indicator fell short in Mike’s view. Other than the continual drama surrounding the Trump presidency, things have been quite calm for the past couple of years. We have been enjoying a time of peace, safety and relative economic prosperity that a lot of Americans have begun to take for granted. But great trouble has been brewing under the surface, and many are wondering if we are about to reach a major turning point. Investors on Monday continued shrugging off fears that President Trump’s escalation of trade hostilities will put a dent in share prices. We almost pity the poor fellow — all that egg he had scrape from his face. The Dow Jones tumbled 219 trade-warring points yesterday — and once again turned negative on the year.
The Chinese say they will retaliate. Asian markets rallied on Monday, extending their gains at the end of last week, following another strong US jobs report that reinforced confidence in the US economy and helped settle trade war nerves. COMPLETELY MEDIOCRE AT BEST jobs report as assurance that trade wars are not going to impact the US economy. So many credit crises are brewing, it’s hard to keep track without a scorecard. The mother of all credit crises is coming to China with over a quarter-trillion dollars owed by insolvent banks and state-owned enterprises, not to mention off-the-books liabilities of provincial governments, wealth management products and developers of white elephant infrastructure projects. Then there’s the emerging-markets credit crisis, with Turkey and Argentina leading a parade of potentially bankrupt borrowers vulnerable to hot money capital outflows and a slowdown of growth in developing economies.
Before it collapsed, the city of Rome had a population greater than 1,000,000 people. That was an extraordinary accomplishment in the ancient world, made possible by many innovative technologies and the organization of the greatest civilization that the world had ever seen. Such an incredible urban population depended on capital accumulated over centuries. After the collapse, the population fell to about 8,000 people. Some fled and arrived at safe places, but surely most perished. 18- Experts Warn Of Chaos For The U. Nothing is going to be the same after this.
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On Friday, the United States hit China with 34 billion dollars in tariffs, and China immediately responded with similar tariffs. If it stopped there, this trade war between the United States and China would not be catastrophic for the global economy. But it isn’t going to stop there. Several noted economists and distinguished investors are warning of a stock market crash. For example, former budget director for the Reagan White House, David Stockman recently raised a red flag when he declared an economic collapse is imminent. There surely is a doozy just around the bend.
The world of finance and investment, as always, faces many uncertainties. The US economy is booming, say some, and others warn that money supply growth has slowed, raising fears of impending deflation. We fret about the banks, with a well-known systemically-important European name in difficulties. We worry about the disintegration of the Eurozone, with record imbalances and a significant member, Italy, digging in its heels. We have not seen Wall Street this jumpy since just before the great financial crisis of 2008. As I have explained so many times before, when the waters are calm and there is low volatility, markets tend to go up.
And when the waters are choppy and volatility starts to spike, markets tend to go down. That is why the behavior that we have been witnessing from investors during the first two quarters of 2018 is so alarming. The Fourth of July is supposed to be celebrated as Independence Day—the day when the thirteen American colonies officially dissolved the political bands that connected them with Great Britain. For the past few weeks, I’ve been intensely focused on what I believe to be a double cross in COMEX gold futures by JPMorgan of other trading entities, particularly other commercial participants. I would define the double cross as JPMorgan positioning itself so flawlessly so as to be nearly perfect in its execution, including the avoidance of any widespread knowledge of what has occurred.
In the US the thing most people think of as inflation is the consumer price index, or CPI, which is now running comfortably above the Fed’s target. And within the PCE universe, core PCE, which strips out energy and food, is the data series that actually motivates Fed action. That’s when the stock market crash that began in January would take its second big leg down, and global economic cracks would become big enough that few could deny them. A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention You can try to play down a trade war with China. You can brush off the impact of rising oil prices on corporate earnings.
But if you’re in the business of making economic predictions, it has become very difficult to disregard an important signal from the bond market. The so-called yield curve is perilously close to predicting a recession — something it has done before with surprising accuracy — and it’s become a big topic on Wall Street. We have written numerous times before about how the East is preparing for a return to some form of a gold standard while the West tries to hang on to a dying system of debt based fiat currency. Ironically it is not completely divided between East and West, as a few European governments have been hedging their bets by repatriating their gold from offshore over the past few years.
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In August — if the gods are kind — this bull market will become the longest in modern history. March 2000 holds the current, jeopardized record. But how much longer can the show run? P rise before the black curtain falls? The most significant event in monetary history since 1971 occurred last week.
An event that threatens to upend the global balance of power, the economy of the world, and your portfolio. To understand the significance of this event and the potential scale of its consequences, a little monetary history is in order. For at least 5000 years, gold and silver have been considered intrinsically valuable, and therefore have been used as a store of wealth and as money. Governments and societies throughout time have used actual silver or gold as their coined currencies. We wait for the world to fall apart.
So we presume the primary trend for bonds is down, too. Our working hypothesis is that General Eisenhower was right. 18- Sane People Absolutely Know Better! Most sane individuals believe these basic truths. We cannot borrow our way out of debt. We cannot spend our way into prosperity. We cannot tax ourselves into wealth.
We trust sane individuals also understand the following. We can’t fix an excessive debt problem with more debt. We can’t support a more expensive military and federal government with a decreasing work force, massive debt and weak economy. Most of the world lives in denial. Claudio Borio, head of the Bank for International Settlements’ Monetary and Economic Department, here poses a thumping question.
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The Federal Reserve bumped interest rates 0. The Fed is also hard at the business of quantitative tightening. 112 billion of maturing bonds since it began last October. 19- Bullish, at All Costs: Why Wall St. Aiding and abetting each other and the publicly traded companies they do business with is a big part of the job.
It is requisite that they pretend to always be bullish on the market, to always maintain the public line that it is a great time to invest, to put more money at risk. 18- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Study Confirms Most Psychopaths Live in Washington D. Murphy also included the District of Columbia in his research, and found it had a psychopathy level far higher than any other state. But this finding is an outlier, as Murphy notes, as it’s an entirely urban area and cannot be fairly compared with larger, more geographically diverse, US states. But still, fun to get some scientific confirmation.
The west line theory states that the shipping center of the world moves in a westward direction slowly over the centuries. It started in the mid east and has moved west through the Mediterranean, Europe, North America and now sits over Asia. A shipping center usually implies a production center as well giving that area great wealth. We now find ourselves on the back end of prosperity and all that it entails.
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We are not the first nation to find ourselves in this position. Those nations that came before us had to deal with a slower, smaller economy following the westward shift of the line. We must now do so as well. It’s so easy it’s perhaps no wonder that people overlook the reasons why. 20 trillion down the throats of the financial system. It has also lowered interest rates to near zero Kelvin.
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Beneath the surface signals of an eternally rising stock market and expanding GDP, we all sense something is deeply, systemically wrong with the U. The financialization of the economy, which transformed services, credit, risk and labor into commodities that could be traded globally. Financialization generates enormously asymmetric returns: those with access to low-cost credit, global markets and expertise in finance collect the lion’s share of gains in income and wealth. This was billed as the most important week of the year for global markets. Just as gravity propels the lava from Kilauea inexorably toward the sea, a mountain of public and private debt looms over today’s markets. Earlier this week, the Boards of Trustees for both U.
Social Security and Medicare released their latest updates on the “solvency” of the programs. Though it’s common knowledge that these programs are vastly underfunded, the degree to which the pending crisis is accelerating should come as a shock to all Americans. While the decline in housing activity has been significant and will probably continue for a while longer, I think the concerns we used to hear about the possibility of a devastating collapse—one that might be big enough to cause a recession in the U. The propaganda is always laid on the heaviest just ahead of The Fall.
96 million working age people not considered part of the labor Force, is possibly the penultimate fabrication. Once you realize that there is no solution to the government’s debt death spiral, it’s only natural to wonder why so few people seem to realize or care that this is the case. If you’re doing well right now, what else really matters? The stock market seems to be on a bizarro perpetual escalator to neverending prosperity, despite rafts of economic fundamentals that paint a portrait of debt-bloated, weak economy, oceans of free debt have been available for years on end to fund lifestyles well beyond earned means, and so long as one has sufficient exposure to risk assets, why bother worrying about big-picture insolvencies that are still years away?