A buy-to-let register by the back door? What would you do with a life-changing sum of money? Will Glaxo latest Bitcoin Rally Runs Out Of Steam off consumer arm to focus on its pharmaceuticals and vaccines?
How much money will I save on my bills if I buy a water butt? Was World Cup fever good for business? Don’t believe you HAVE to use an estate agent’s mortgage broker: Buyers routinely misled into using in-house partners, Which? As Co-operative Energy hikes prices by 5. Is ANOTHER interest rate U-turn on cards? PROPERTY CLINIC: How long do I need to own a property as my home before letting it to avoid extra stamp duty? The FTSE 100 index at the close was down 9.
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According to Adrian Lowcock, an investment director at Architas, said: ‘Whilst we believe inflation looked to have peaked, any drop is likely to be gradual. With the global economy continuing to grow and indeed the UK only growing slightly slower there is a growing pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates soon. Something the Governor, Mark Carney, has indicated could happen. Investors should ensure their portfolios are well protected against mild inflation and for a world of slightly higher interest rates. Typically, equities have been a good place to be in this environment. Is a March interest rate rise in the US now a given?
As expected, US markets on Wall Street have begun trading on the back foot. The Dow Jones is 85 points down already, a slide of 0. 39 earlier today after the latest ONS report revealed inflation stuck at the same level as December. Consumer spending entered the New Year on a downbeat note, falling for the eighth time in the past nine months, as Britons continued to cut back on spending. Clothing, furniture and household goods bore the brunt of consumers’ caution yet again, while spending on the British high street in general fell sharply as the traditional January sales failed to bring shoppers out in numbers this year.
It wasn’t all doom and gloom in January though. Britons tackled the January blues with evenings out and early holiday bookings, giving a boost to hotels, restaurants and bars. Spending on jewellery, beauty products and trips to hair salons recorded strong growth too, as consumers continued to prefer small treats over big tickets items. Household spending continued to decline in real terms at the start of 2018, according to the latest Visa UK Consumer Spending Index data.
The latest reduction was the quickest seen since last October, and indicates that spending has now fallen in eight of the past nine months. UK January sales dip for the first time since 2013. US Futures as investors remain nervous about wages, inflation, deficits, and yields and the relationship between yields and stock multiples. Yesterday’s recovery for US stocks already looks like it has faltered as pre-market trading put Dow Jones futures more than 100 points lower.
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Dow futures hinted at a -0. P 500 futures trading suggested it would drop 0. Most importantly this means that the pay squeeze continues. Prices are rising faster than wages, and although we expect inflation to subside, real wages are unlikely to rise much before well into 2018 pic. Following last week’s falling share prices, today’s figures will further dampen spending ability, particularly for those who are invested in the stock market.
Despite edging closer towards another rate hike as suggested in last week’s MPC meeting, today’s figures means a continuation of the record lows. Even if the Bank of England is to raise interest rates, there are misconceptions as to when consumers will actually see the results, particularly as some banks are failing to pass this on. That said, rates would need to be hiked significantly to make a real noticeable difference to consumers. Wage growth is currently running at 2. We’ll be looking for an increase when the ONS reports next week. The Bank of England has said it expects pay growth to accelerate in 2018, and this is yet another reason higher interest rates are on the table. It seems domestically driven inflation could seamlessly take over from the sterling-related price rises we’ve seen since the Brexit vote.
If this is the case, some tightening of monetary policy looks increasingly appropriate. That said, structural factors like an ageing demographic and the rise of disruptive technologies continue to exert downward pressure on the inflation rate, and I don’t think the Bank of England will have to be too extreme in its actions to keep a lid on the situation. Neil Wilson of ETX Capital says Bitcoin is turning lower. Bitcoin struggling to sustain rally, struggling with trend resistance and turning lower pic. What does inflation rate mean for policy makers? Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said the key dilemma for policy makers is that economic growth appears to have faltered in early 2018.
PMI survey data registered the slowest growth of business activity for one-and-a-half years in January. Data from mortgage lender Halifax have also shown house prices falling for a second successive month in January while an index of consumer spending from Visa showed a 1. While the stickiness of inflation will make for itchy trigger figures among rate setters at the Bank of England, the signs of the economy faltering suggest there’s a risk of higher interest rate exacerbating a nascent slowdown. The door remains open for a May interest rate hike, but the Bank of England will likely need to see indicators of the economy’s health improve to be sufficiently reassured that the economy is ready for another rise in borrowing costs.
Supply chain inflation moderating with producer output prices at 2. YoY – lowest since Nov 2016. Alistair Wilson, head of retail platform strategy at Zurich, said: ‘The overall rise in inflation has been persistent. Adding fuel to the fire is the continuing stagnation of wages over the same period, with increases remaining well below the rate of inflation and putting further strain on household disposable incomes. After last week’s falling share prices, high inflation will put a second dent in the spending power of pensioners whose pots are invested in the stock market. Last week’s MPC meeting would suggest another rate rise is just around the corner.
While a significant increase is unlikely, savers will still need to take a hands-on approach to their finances if they are to avoid any future shocks. The ONS said motor fuel pushed down the rate of inflation in January as they rose by less than they did a year ago. However, ‘recreational and cultural’ goods and services were the main things pushing inflation higher as prices for tickets to places such as zoos and gardens fell at a slower rate. January – unchanged from December 2017 but marginally down on the 3.
January this year according to data from the Office for National Statistics. The rate, which measures increases in the prices of goods, was unchanged on December 2017. With the FTSE faltering and European markets in the red this morning analyst Neil Wilson, of ETX Capital, says this doesn’t look like a recovery for stocks. European markets are failing to follow through on yesterday’s bounce and a decent performance overnight in Asia, with the main bourses in the red this morning. Wall Street is looking to build on a big two-day rally but there is as yet no real conviction behind this, as evidenced by the softer performance in European indices this morning.
The Eurostoxx 600 – one of the biggest indicies on the continent – is down this morning, failing to follow Wall Street up and recover from last week’s troubles. The German DAX is also down in the red today – and the French CAC is also falling. Bumpy day ahead for the FTSE? It’s been through a number of ups and downs since the opening of trading already, with the FTSE back in the green after dipping earlier. The FTSE 100-listed firm logged an 8.
After resisting a hike in interest rates this week, the Bank of England will be watching to see how fresh inflation data due out at 9. 30 this morning will play out. Inflation hit a peak of 3. After shooting up at opening, the FTSE 100 stumbled into the red in the first half hour of trading this morning. Dashing hopes that the market recovery was strengthening, however it is likely the index could be set for a volatile day.
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29 in the federal court in Eugene, Oregon. Friday as bond yields jumped, a shift that helped banks but hurt companies that pay big dividends. The dollar fell after President Donald Trump said China is manipulating its currency. The Russell 2000 index of smaller-company stocks slumped 4. 18- Weekend Rant: Will Politics Decide The Future of The Financial Markets?
Does it ever feel like the financial markets have become heavily intertwined with the current political arena? Where in many cases natural supply and demand have become irrelevant, and instead asset prices often revolve around the latest gossip about potential Fed or government actions. Unfortunately today’s markets have evolved to the point where the latest political decree can significantly impact what happens. And along those lines, there’s been ample speculation that the powers that be may be planning a financial reset.
The economies of the world are at an inflection point. Enough data points have now presented themselves to be able to see the outlines of a major shift in the markets of the world. We are at a pay attention moment. There comes a time when a successful investor must make some hard decisions to position himself to be able to take advantage of opportunities down the road. The markets are telling us now is such a moment. It’s time to sit up and pay attention to what Mr.
Market is trying to tell us. A funny thing happened in the middle of one of Mike Maloney’s deep-research sessions recently. As you know, he just released a brand new presentation, but while analyzing the stock market he wasn’t satisfied with the way most valuation measures were calculated. With all due respect to Warren Buffet, even his indicator fell short in Mike’s view. Other than the continual drama surrounding the Trump presidency, things have been quite calm for the past couple of years. We have been enjoying a time of peace, safety and relative economic prosperity that a lot of Americans have begun to take for granted.
But great trouble has been brewing under the surface, and many are wondering if we are about to reach a major turning point. Investors on Monday continued shrugging off fears that President Trump’s escalation of trade hostilities will put a dent in share prices. We almost pity the poor fellow — all that egg he had scrape from his face. The Dow Jones tumbled 219 trade-warring points yesterday — and once again turned negative on the year. The Chinese say they will retaliate.
Asian markets rallied on Monday, extending their gains at the end of last week, following another strong US jobs report that reinforced confidence in the US economy and helped settle trade war nerves. COMPLETELY MEDIOCRE AT BEST jobs report as assurance that trade wars are not going to impact the US economy. So many credit crises are brewing, it’s hard to keep track without a scorecard. The mother of all credit crises is coming to China with over a quarter-trillion dollars owed by insolvent banks and state-owned enterprises, not to mention off-the-books liabilities of provincial governments, wealth management products and developers of white elephant infrastructure projects. Then there’s the emerging-markets credit crisis, with Turkey and Argentina leading a parade of potentially bankrupt borrowers vulnerable to hot money capital outflows and a slowdown of growth in developing economies. Before it collapsed, the city of Rome had a population greater than 1,000,000 people.
That was an extraordinary accomplishment in the ancient world, made possible by many innovative technologies and the organization of the greatest civilization that the world had ever seen. Such an incredible urban population depended on capital accumulated over centuries. After the collapse, the population fell to about 8,000 people. Some fled and arrived at safe places, but surely most perished.