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2013, and as the State reduces its involvement in the economy, growth is showing levels of 12-12. PZ Cussons more recently shows signs of sloughing off some of its Nigerian malaise, with a better set of figures, and improved share price. Given the huge appreciation in the price of Unilever and the interest expressed briefly by the Buffet consortium, it would appear a strong hold, despite the disruption inherent in its main market of Nigeria. There are several more successes secreted within the portfolio, as it re-balances the predominance of resources: BAT has until recently been a stellar performer, as has Melrose in engineering, RWS in Patent protection, and Porvair in filters. Victrex has been buoyed by that rarest of rare events where its patents have earned a reduced level of taxation from HMRC under the UK Patent Box legislation. A fine business adapting its engineering expertise to modern technology. It is to be hoped that Goodwin, supplying the castings for the worldwide energy and defence sectors, as well as jewellery lost wax casting, has passed the nadir of its decline in profits amidst the reduction in demand in the carbon fuel sector.
J Mucklow in industrial units within the Midlands, Phoenix Group in its absorption of closed pension funds, and Palace Capital with its astutely managed property portfolio, primarily outside the London and RSA Insurance have all helped reinforce the dividend income flow, which had faltered from the mining sector. Troy’s fall from grace has been precipitate, prolonged and unpalatable, partly a result of the pit-wall failure followed by an interested party selling during a close period. 165 billion, and increased the royalty payable by Shanta amongst other mines. The vicissitudes of business in Africa have in recent years become more oppressive, as witnessed in South Africa where a corrupt President has succeeded in resisting impeachment by a small margin, and the suggestion of additional shares for Black Empowerment participants is a continuing threat. We have sadly disposed of our holding in Impala Platinum, long a stalwart of the dividend payers as platinum demand soared to supply exhaust catalysts. Dieselgate’ imbroglio and rise of hybrid cars along with Labour unrest has made its retention less appealing.
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Perhaps the hydrogen car will come to its rescue. The deterrent to inward investment other than from China, appears only partially perceived. EU to tax or fine Apple, Google and other titans of technology for perceived infringements against the predominance of the Old World order. The latest lunacy within Britain is the announcement that the sale of new diesel and petrol cars will be prohibited by 2040. The presumption that our national power supplies will have miraculously emerged from a prolonged moratorium on the continuation or building of thermal-powered electricity, with Hinkley Point way over budget and behind schedule, and succeed in producing significantly more power to recharge a glistening array of electric vehicles is to our mind at least utterly fanciful. Moreover the huge advances achieved in the development of internal combustion engines over recent years has brought them to a point of perfection, where only minor improvements are now needed to eliminate the worst excesses of particulates and other emissions.
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Once again a political diktat has been imposed on one of Britain’s most important employers, without it would seem any consultation with those manufacturers. The market should remain supreme, unleashing all its magnificent power of innovation and development, with only gentle nudges from government to uphold law, avoid perverse consequences and ensure the appropriate treatment of employees. Sadly the financial sector faces similar challenges, where MiFID II is the ogre on the horizon, and its implementation in January 2018 is likely to lead to a vast array of complications and unintended consequences, not least the devastation of the stockbroking research sector, as payment will have to be apportioned for research received, rather than bundled up with commission fees. We sense the blunders of Brussels, aided by a British bureaucracy only too keen to usurp the market mechanisms that have successfully managed the monitoring for many years. It will be very hard to rebuild the structures and firms that have grown over the years, if this bulldozer approach flattens the whole sector, or at least its smaller participants.
One wonders whether Britain will emerge any better once its departure from the EU is assured. 1985 of the role of District Surveyor, who monitored Building regulations rigorously and impartially. The new Editor of the Evening Standard, not content with piling abuse on Theresa May, has left a toxic legacy in the housing market, where grotesquely excessive stamp duty has brought London’s housing market to a shuddering halt, and greatly distorted that of the major part of southern England. The failure of large housebuilders to build at a rate to satisfy the needs of the younger generation also threatens the social fabric of the country, and is grist to the Corbyn mill of State Socialism. Argentina to issue 100 year debt, and Iraq to borrow at 6. 7 times, shows no shortage of money-lenders taking a different view.
The unpredictable character of Donald Trump, the revenge-seeking of his erstwhile opponents, and the continuing failure of any of his reforms to be enacted into law, mean that some of the uplift originally expected from infrastructure spending and tax reform may never occur. August will have off-set some of this benefit, but despite the significant challenges of rate reviews, living wage, apprenticeship levies and increased alcohol duty, we would expect the sector to continue growing, even if at a reduced rate. With debt reduced, and a good balance within the portfolio of stable and long-established companies, we see no reason that your company’s progress and recovery should not continue. The outlook for the UK is clouded by the impasse confronting Britain’s negotiators over leaving the EU: it would appear that elements within the European Commission are determined to punish Britain for its temerity in voting to leave, and to fulfil the predictions of disaster made by all and sundry prior to June 23rd.
At all costs the departure must not be seen to be a success, hence the suggestion of skyhigh leaving bills, and other malignant manoeuvres. Concomitant with this uncertainty, the good economic figures Britain has enjoyed up to now are beginning to fade, under the burden of rising import prices, and cost increases resulting from apprenticeship levies, living wage and a variety of extra regulations. We are therefore somewhat sanguine on the outlook for UK centred companies, although our overseas investments should benefit from any further weakness of the pound. The Board are currently evaluating a number of proposals for the future of your company and hope to be able to advise shareholders accordingly in due course. Proverbs XV v 22: Without counsel, purposes are disappointed, but in the multitude of counsellors they are established. Our appreciation is due in spades to the dedication and effort displayed by the unflappable Una, ever-positive Abbie and consistency of Nancy and Nick in making the management of the company run so smoothly. We are indeed grateful for their support and achievements.
The Board has resolved to propose a final dividend of 2. 28 November 2016 to Members registered on the books of the Company at the close of business on 28 October 2016. Although this puts us back more or less where we started in June 2015, the expectation that the mining market, and gold, were yesterday’s ideas has been rebuffed, even if temporarily. It is heartening to hear in recent weeks some of the sagest investment minds saying that we are moving into uncharted waters, and therefore increasing their exposure to gold.
Whilst marking time is not a seductive investment philosophy, we do believe that the reduction in debt achieved over the last year, and a fall in our exposure to Swaps, whilst increasing our exposure to larger-capitalisation stocks, has provided a much more secure base from which to approach the challenges ahead. Young’s and Halstead, backed up by the gold exposure from our miners, does answer some of those challenges, despite the shortcomings of the metals during the mining-slump of the past few years. Looking at a few of our individual stocks, Hurricane hit a low around the 9p level in the spring, but has since bounced above the 30p mark, as two funds took advantage of its depressed level, sensing the opportunity in its stranded oil West Shetlands deposit. Its drilling result announced on the 9 September has validated the optimism of its chief Geologist and seen a huge rise in its share price, as good as the Pantheon Resources results were disappointing. We were pleased to welcome Dominic Scriven OBE and his team’s Vietnam Enterprise Investment Fund to a London listing in early July, and are grateful for his dedicated stewardship of a significant holding for us, opening doors successfully to one of the more populous and promising Asian markets.
Shanta Gold has also recently revealed greater reserves than previously assessed, and continues its recovery, at its various projects in Tanzania. Troy has recovered from its mid-winter lows, but the volume of rain in Guyana has restricted its ability to meet its production targets, and it has once again made recourse to capital raising in recent weeks. The ride at Pantheon Resources has certainly been anything but dull in recent months even if hopes for a further extension to its Texan oil deposits were recently dashed, along with the share price, by drilling complications. Whilst the shorts might have the upper hand for now, we will wait for a recovery to emerge. That has thus far been the case at Cadiz, the water project in the Mojave Desert in California that has been the subject of a sustained shorting attack. Along with Shell and British American Tobacco, there is considerable comfort to be had from bolstering the portfolio with these larger companies, even if growth will tend to come from the successful selection of smaller companies.
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Investors are increasingly seeking higher-yielding stocks, often via the medium of ETFs and as a consequence their valuations are rising to perhaps unsustainable levels, whilst those beneath the radar of many brokers’ lists continue to present compelling value. Ocean Wilsons is also thriving despite the vagaries of the Brazilian economy. MP Evans, having paid a special dividend with the proceeds of the sale of its Australian cattle station, stands to benefit from an increase in the palm oil price, as does REA, after enduring a period of impairment from low yields and low prices. Select Harvests is also beginning to see a recovery in the almond price, and tiny Fulcrum, providing electricity services to several major entities, has risen dramatically in the past year. As some shareholders had expressed concern at the investment performance of the Company, the widening discount to net asset value and the lack of liquidity in the shares, the Board consulted with some of the larger shareholders who reemphasised these concerns.
Chancellor’s predictions of penury bordered on the treasonable, not to mention with hindsight, laughable. This must be added to his deplorable record in making the tax system fiendishly complex, primarily for political reasons, and putting paid to the London property market, Buy to let and imposing the egregious Living Wage. What we do know is that the pension and savings systems of most of the Western world have over the last 10 years been brought to the borders of insolvency by the imposition of microscopic rates of return. More of the same seems currently the only solution on offer.
The recent collapse of the Hanjin Shipping Line, whilst presaging a rise in freight rates, has highlighted the grotesque overcapacity in the container market, and also that of port capacity. What a marvelous change to see Mrs. May confounding the perceived wisdom of 50 years by allowing the creation of new Grammar Schools. Sadly she has not scrapped the deeply dubious Hinkley Point but perhaps may bite the bullet and dispose of HS2 and reverse the closure of our remaining Coal-fired Power stations whilst accelerating the building of several more runways. Faced with the prospect of a Fool or a Knave, as some have described the choice facing the United States electorate, having some protection against possible rises in interest rates, along with gold, does seem to make a degree of sense. We could well be entering another era of favourable prices for Precious metals, where even the despised Platinum shares are making a comeback.
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We are therefore continuing our search for well-financed projects with substantial gold reserves, along with other metals such as lithium as we move further into the era of electric vehicles and the storage of electricity. We will back these up with value positions where there is a significant discount to assets, along with companies possessing an especial edge in technology or licences, such as Renishaw. The celebrations of Her Majesty’s 90th Birthday, followed by the warm glow of Rio, and the dominance of the British Eights, Four and Women’s Pair will take time to fade. Along with so many other sporting successes this summer they are tributes to outstanding individuals and dedicated and hugely competent management and coaching teams. We believe that despite the initial antagonism of many of the young and bright of today, Britain’s future as an independent Nation, free of the shackles of a Socialist, dictatorial and undemocratic union will be bright.
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Blessed be the Lord, who hath not given us as a prey to their teeth. Our help is in the name of the Lord, who made heaven and earth. It remains for me to thank my fellow directors for their calmness and counsel in the face of conflicting opinions and challenging conditions, and look forward to working together to meet the opportunities at hand in a rapidly changing world. June 2015 The Board has resolved to pay a final dividend of 2. 27 November 2015 to Members registered on the books of the Company at the close of business on 30 October 2015. The Board paid a final dividend of 3. 7 pence per Share for the year-ended 30 June 2014 on 24 November 2014 to Members registered on the books of the Company at the close of business on 31 October 2014.
Undoubtedly the patience of shareholders will be wearing thin, contemplating another set of desperately disappointing results: that many in the Mining and Precious metals sector have fared even worse is of scant comfort. The Board is cognisant of the reality that companies with the heaviest debt burdens have suffered most severely in recent years, amongst which the example of Glencore comes to mind, floated with such a fanfare only three years ago. Sit up and Beg’ bicycle with broken spokes and flat tyres. We have therefore taken steps to reduce our level of indebtedness, the injudicious legacy of more buoyant times. Board’s current intention that this be reduced to nil over the course of the next 3 years. Concomitant with the reduction in debt, the Board has also resolved to reduce the total number of stocks to closer to the 100 mark. We have over many years held a larger number of stocks than many of our contemporaries, partly as the legacy of spin-outs and small holdings of Preference shares, quite often acquired many years ago.
Some of these produce a steady flow of Preference income, with the minimum of supervision required. In conjunction with these two objectives, the running costs of the business have been and continue to be scrutinised for further savings. Sadly we have bid farewell to Melwin Mehta after several years of sterling service, but in a more expansive era. In a time of greater austerity, we are obliged to cut our cloth accordingly. Every attempt is being made to reduce costs to a minimum, without cutting into the bone of the company.
These are the main determinants of our strategy at the current time. We have been grateful to receive suggestions from several shareholders over the past few months, and will endeavour to investigate and implement those ideas that would seem most favourable to the future well-being of your company. Ultimately your company is at the mercy of markets which are currently ill-disposed to many of its traditional areas of investment: this may well change in due course, but an element of patience is needed, whilst our revised policies take effect, and the tide turns for Gold, energy and our other interests. In the meantime, we will seek out secure sources of income from larger cap stocks, which have previously not been well represented in our portfolio.
It would be too simple to succumb to despair, when so many of the stalwarts of the portfolio remain battered and bowed, and seemingly unresponsive to events, exemplified by the failure of Gold to do more than a hesitant huff: Oil and its producers or explorers, Palm Oil, Gold, Silver, Platinum, most of the Metals, Diamonds, Dairy and Grain prices, along with Potash and other fertilisers all reflect surplus production and stagnant or falling demand. Amongst those to have suffered are our holdings in the Platinum producers, once the wonder metal powering catalytic converters for many of the Motor industry’s automobile engines, but now riven by labour strife in South Africa, and the failure of the bigger mines to improve efficiency when the going was good. The decline and fall of Volkswagen, following the disclosures of its falsification of emission figures on its diesel engines in the United States, despite the paltriness of its market share in that country, may well be a symptom of a rotten corporate culture, and ultimately unsatisfactory example of State and Union control, but it has severe implications for Platinum demand. If demand for Diesel cars falls as a result of these misdemeanours, so will demand for Platinum, despite the undoubted benefits of diesel’s lower carbon emissions. As optimists and admirers of the advantages of diesel for many years, we are inclined to hope that usage of platinum may ultimately increase, as engines are adapted to reduce particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions, rather than to hoodwink testing devices. Our Palm Oil producers, whilst in the case of MP Evans benefitting from buoyant Beef prices in Australia, have seen a tumble in the Palm Oil price, whilst the re-emergence of El Nino has led to falls in production, especially in the case of REA Holdings. The recent sale by MP Evans of its wholly-owned Cattle farm in Australia will help fill its coffers, and may well be followed by additional disposals.