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Risk is the potential of gaining or losing something of value. Risk perception is the subjective judgment people make about the severity and probability of a risk, and may vary person to person. Any human endeavour carries some risk, but some are much riskier than others. 1621, and the spelling as risk from 1655. Risk is an influence affecting strategy caused by an incentive or condition that inhibits transformation to quality excellence. Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has an effect on at least one objective.
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The probability of something happening multiplied by the resulting cost or benefit if it does. The probability or threat of quantifiable damage, injury, liability, loss, or any other negative occurrence that is caused by external or internal vulnerabilities, and that may be avoided through preemptive action. Finance: The possibility that an actual return on an investment will be lower than the expected return. Securities trading: The probability of a loss or drop in value. Systematic risk affects all securities in the same class and is linked to the overall capital-market system and therefore cannot be eliminated by diversification. Non-systematic risk is any risk that isn’t market-related. Workplace: Product of the consequence and probability of a hazardous event or phenomenon.
ISO Guide 73:2002 definition of risk is the ‘effect of uncertainty on objectives’. Very different approaches to risk management are taken in different fields, e. Risk can be seen as relating to the probability of uncertain future events. Risk is ubiquitous in all areas of life and risk management is something that we all must do, whether we are managing a major organisation or simply crossing the road. When describing risk however, it is convenient to consider that risk practitioners operate in some specific practice areas. Economic risks can be manifested in lower incomes or higher expenditures than expected.
The causes can be many, for instance, the hike in the price for raw materials, the lapsing of deadlines for construction of a new operating facility, disruptions in a production process, emergence of a serious competitor on the market, the loss of key personnel, the change of a political regime, or natural disasters. Risks in personal health may be reduced by primary prevention actions that decrease early causes of illness or by secondary prevention actions after a person has clearly measured clinical signs or symptoms recognised as risk factors. In epidemiology, the lifetime risk of an effect is the cumulative incidence, also called incidence proportion over an entire lifetime. One of the strongest links between these is that a single risk event may have impacts in all three areas, albeit over differing timescales. Over time, a form of risk analysis called environmental risk analysis has developed. Environmental risk analysis is a field of study that attempts to understand events and activities that bring risk to human health or the environment.
As such, risk is a function of hazard and exposure. Hazard is the intrinsic danger or harm that is posed, e. Exposure is the likely contact with that hazard. Individual risk perception and risk taking can also be influenced by social factors. The study also finds that these factors can interact.
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Information technology risk, or IT risk, IT-related risk, is a risk related to information technology. This relatively new term was developed as a result of an increasing awareness that information security is simply one facet of a multitude of risks that are relevant to IT and the real world processes it supports. Information security means protecting information and information systems from unauthorised access, use, disclosure, disruption, modification, perusal, inspection, recording or destruction. Information security grew out of practices and procedures of computer security. While focused dominantly on information in digital form, the full range of IA encompasses not only digital but also analogue or physical form.
Information assurance risks include the ones related to the consistency of the business information stored in IT systems and the information stored by other means and the relevant business consequences. Insurance is a risk treatment option which involves risk sharing. It can be considered as a form of contingent capital and is akin to purchasing an option in which the buyer pays a small premium to be protected from a potential large loss. Insurance risk is often taken by insurance companies, who then bear a pool of risks including market risk, credit risk, operational risk, interest rate risk, mortality risk, longevity risks, etc.
Means of assessing risk vary widely between professions. In the workplace, incidental and inherent risks exist. Incidental risks are those that occur naturally in the business but are not part of the core of the business. Inherent risks have a negative effect on the operating profit of the business. The experience of many people who rely on human services for support is that ‘risk’ is often used as a reason to prevent them from gaining further independence or fully accessing the community, and that these services are often unnecessarily risk averse.
Some of these industries manage risk in a highly quantified and enumerated way. These include the nuclear power and aircraft industries, where the possible failure of a complex series of engineered systems could result in highly undesirable outcomes. In the nuclear industry, consequence is often measured in terms of off-site radiological release, and this is often banded into five or six-decade-wide bands. Where these risks are low, they are normally considered to be “broadly acceptable”. The level of risk deemed broadly acceptable has been considered by regulatory bodies in various countries—an early attempt by UK government regulator and academic F. Farmer used the example of hill-walking and similar activities, which have definable risks that people appear to find acceptable. This resulted in the so-called Farmer Curve of acceptable probability of an event versus its consequence.
See WASH-1400 for an example of this approach. In finance, risk is the chance that the return achieved on an investment will be different from that expected, and also takes into account the size of the difference. This includes the possibility of losing some or all of the original investment. The greater the potential return one might seek, the greater the risk that one generally assumes. There are different types of VaR: long term VaR, marginal VaR, factor VaR and shock VaR.
The latter is used in measuring risk during the extreme market stress conditions. In finance, risk has no single definition. In Novak “risk is a possibility of an undesirable event”. In financial markets, one may need to measure credit risk, information timing and source risk, probability model risk, operational risk and legal risk if there are regulatory or civil actions taken as a result of “investor’s regret”. With the advent of automation in financial markets, the concept of “real-time risk” has gained a lot of attention. Aldridge and Krawciw define real-time risk as the probability of instantaneous or near-instantaneous loss, and can be due to flash crashes, other market crises, malicious activity by selected market participants and other events. Some people may be “risk seeking”, i.
AR is audit risk, IR is inherent risk, CR is control risk and DR is detection risk. Note: As defined, audit risk does not consider the impact of an auditor misstatement and so is stated as a simple probability. The impact of misstatement must be considered when determining an acceptable audit risk. Security risk management involves protection of assets from harm caused by deliberate acts. A more detailed definition is: “A security risk is any event that could result in the compromise of organizational assets i. One of the growing areas of focus in risk management is the field of human factors where behavioural and organizational psychology underpin our understanding of risk based decision making. This field considers questions such as “how do we make risk based decisions?
Framing is a fundamental problem with all forms of risk assessment. Or, an event that everyone agrees is inevitable may be ruled out of analysis due to greed or an unwillingness to admit that it is believed to be inevitable. Framing involves other information that affects the outcome of a risky decision. The right prefrontal cortex has been shown to take a more global perspective while greater left prefrontal activity relates to local or focal processing. Rightward tapping or listening had the effect of narrowing attention such that the frame was ignored.
A growing area of research has been to examine various psychological aspects of risk taking. Researchers typically run randomised experiments with a treatment and control group to ascertain the effect of different psychological factors that may be associated with risk taking. Thus, positive and negative feedback about past risk taking can affect future risk taking. The concept of risk-based maintenance is an advanced form of Reliability centred maintenance. In case of chemical industries, apart from probability of failure, consequences of failure is also very important. Therefore, the selection of maintenance policies should be based on risk, instead of reliability. Closely related to information assurance and security risk, cybersecurity is the application of system security engineering in order to address the compromise of company cyber-assets required for business or mission purposes.
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Since risk assessment and management is essential in security management, both are tightly related. Security assessment methodologies like CRAMM contain risk assessment modules as an important part of the first steps of the methodology. On the other hand, risk assessment methodologies like Mehari evolved to become security assessment methodologies. There are many formal methods used to “measure” risk. Often the probability of a negative event is estimated by using the frequency of past similar events. Probabilities for rare failures may be difficult to estimate.
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This makes risk assessment difficult in hazardous industries, for example nuclear energy, where the frequency of failures is rare, while harmful consequences of failure are severe. Statistical methods may also require the use of a cost function, which in turn may require the calculation of the cost of loss of a human life. Risk is often measured as the expected value of an undesirable outcome. This combines the probabilities of various possible events and some assessment of the corresponding harm into a single value.
The simplest case is a binary possibility of Accident or No accident. For example, if performing activity X has a probability of 0. 01 of suffering an accident of A, with a loss of 1000, then total risk is a loss of 10, the product of 0. Situations are sometimes more complex than the simple binary possibility case. 01 of suffering an accident of A, with a loss of 1000, and a probability of 0. 000001 of suffering an accident of type B, with a loss of 2,000,000, then total loss expectancy is 12, which is equal to a loss of 10 from an accident of type A and 2 from an accident of type B. One of the first major uses of this concept was for the planning of the Delta Works in 1953, a flood protection program in the Netherlands, with the aid of the mathematician David van Dantzig.
In statistical decision theory, the risk function is defined as the expected value of a given loss function as a function of the decision rule used to make decisions in the face of uncertainty. People may rely on their fear and hesitation to keep them out of the most profoundly unknown circumstances. Fear is a response to perceived danger. Risk could be said to be the way we collectively measure and share this “true fear”—a fusion of rational doubt, irrational fear, and a set of unquantified biases from our own experience. The field of behavioural finance focuses on human risk-aversion, asymmetric regret, and other ways that human financial behaviour varies from what analysts call “rational”.
Risk in that case is the degree of uncertainty associated with a return on an asset. Psychologists have demonstrated that increases in anxiety and increases in risk perception are related and people who are habituated to anxiety experience this awareness of risk more intensely than normal individuals. In decision-making, anxiety promotes the use of biases and quick thinking to evaluate risk. Experimental studies show that brief surges in anxiety are correlated with surges in general risk perception. This notion is supported by an experiment that engages physicians in a simulated perilous surgical procedure.
Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain why people fear dread risks. First, the psychometric paradigm suggests that high lack of control, high catastrophic potential, and severe consequences account for the increased risk perception and anxiety associated with dread risks. There is a chance that “judgmental accuracy” is correlated with heightened anxiety. Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated. The term “risk,” as loosely used in everyday speech and in economic discussion, really covers two things which, functionally at least, in their causal relations to the phenomena of economic organization, are categorically different. Thus, Knightian uncertainty is immeasurable, not possible to calculate, while in the Knightian sense risk is measurable.
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Uncertainty: The lack of complete certainty, that is, the existence of more than one possibility. Measurement of uncertainty: A set of probabilities assigned to a set of possibilities. Risk: A state of uncertainty where some of the possibilities involve a loss, catastrophe, or other undesirable outcome. The terms risk attitude, appetite, and tolerance are often used similarly to describe an organisation’s or individual’s attitude towards risk-taking.
One’s attitude may be described as risk-averse, risk-neutral, or risk-seeking. Gambling is a risk-increasing investment, wherein money on hand is risked for a possible large return, but with the possibility of losing it all. Purchasing a lottery ticket is a very risky investment with a high chance of no return and a small chance of a very high return. In contrast, putting money in a bank at a defined rate of interest is a risk-averse action that gives a guaranteed return of a small gain and precludes other investments with possibly higher gain. Hubbard also argues that defining risk as the product of impact and probability presumes, unrealistically, that decision-makers are risk-neutral. This is a list of books about risk issues.
Baruch Fischhoff, Sarah Lichtenstein, Paul Slovic, Steven L. David Godschalk, Timothy Beatley, Philip Berke, David Brower, and Edward J. Ian Burton, Robert Kates, and Gilbert F. A Production Model for Construction: A Theoretical Framework”.
Subscription or UK public library membership required. Technical Standard Risk Taxonomy ISBN 1-931624-77-1 Document Number: C081 Published by The Open Group, January 2009. A glossary for evidence based public health”. Environmental Risk Analysis: Problems and Perspectives in Different Countries”. The Digital Hand: How Computers Changed the Work of American Manufacturing, Transportation, and Retail Industries. The Digital Hand: Volume II: How Computers Changed the Work of American Financial, Telecommunications, Media, and Entertainment Industries.